What does 2025 have in store for Europe in terms of war and peace?

2024 was a turbulent year, with ongoing military conflicts and geopolitical tensions. And judging by the news reports, 2025 is also shaping up to be a tumultuous year. So what is the status of our security in Europe? Should we be preparing for war? And do we need a European army? Michelle Haas, a researcher for Ghent University specialising in European defence policy, weighs the options.

How big is the threat of war in Europe?

“The threat is definitely real, and it’s growing”, says Michelle. Russia is destabilising the region through the invasion of Ukraine and is testing NATO’s borders. “If Russia is successful, it may feel encouraged to take the next step, for instance by attacking a Baltic state or strategic targets in Western Europe.”

“Of course, the concrete war threat is different for Belgium than it is for, say, Estonia. On the other hand, Belgium has historically spent far less on defence than many other EU countries, in spite of its geographical location. From a Russian perspective it is not unthinkable that if it wants to destabilise Europe, Belgium is a vulnerable target. Just think of our ports or NATO headquarters. On top of this, our country is severely lacking in essential defence capabilities such as air defence.”

“Russia may not wage a conventional war in Belgium with tanks and troops in Brussels’ streets, but hybrid attacks, such as sabotage of critical infrastructure and disinformation campaigns among the populace, can inflict tremendous damage”, Michelle emphasises. “These (new) forms of warfare demand a higher level of societal resilience. Awareness raising campaigns such as in Sweden, where all inhabitants receive a brochure detailing how to prepare for war, are a relevant example. At the same time there is no strict division between hybrid and conventional warfare; the former can be a prelude to the latter. Military readiness is part of resilience and is a government responsibility.”

Should we put together an emergency kit in case war breaks out, as the National Crisis Centre recommends?

“That won’t be necessary”, Michelle says reassuringly. “The practical aspect involves minor steps. For instance, taking a first aid course, having a few cans of food at home or buying a thermal blanket for emergencies. But resilience is not about material things. The point is that we must realise that safety is no longer a matter of course.”

“In the Netherlands there’s a run on survival kits but storming off to prep shops in a panic is not the solution. Resilience is a strengthening process that takes time. The government can bolster that process without causing panic.”

Is the establishment of a European army the solution for a safer Europe?

“In theory a European army would be an excellent idea. Such an army would make the European Union less dependent on the US while sending a clear message to other countries such as Russia.” The idea of joint investments is also appealing. “Think of economies of scale in purchasing defence equipment and interoperability that facilitates collaboration”, she explains.

But in practice, things are much more complicated. “How do you unite 27 member states with different interests and priorities under a single command? For example, Southern European countries are much more focused on instability in the Mediterranean region, whereas North European countries worry about the war threat from Russia. And then there are the differences in language, culture and communication that make full integration impossible”, Michelle explains.

Additionally, security remains a core responsibility of national governments. Politically speaking it is unthinkable that countries will relinquish that control entirely. “All these logical obstacles make the building of a fully integrated European army unrealistic for the time being. So the debate should no longer focus on that.”

Is a more intensive defence cooperation between EU countries within the NATO alliance a viable alternative?

“Certainly, EU member states must continue to strengthen their defence cooperation and this is perfectly possible as a European pillar within the NATO alliance”, says Michelle. “These collaborations are not mutually exclusive. NATO has a strong focus on collective defence within the scope of article 5, which stipulates that an armed attack against a single member state is considered an attack on all member states. The Russian threat is absolutely central right now. From this perspective, EU member states could assess what other challenges and regions warrant their attention in the context of European security, such as the instable situation in the Sahel region. Additionally, European defence cooperation also includes bilateral and multilateral partnerships, such as Belgium’s naval cooperation with its Dutch neighbours.

Conclusion: what does 2025 have in store for Europe in terms of war and peace?

“Events in recent years have been highly unpredictable. Think of the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan, the escalation in the Middle East and Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Everyone is hoping no new conflicts or wars will be added to the list.”

“But 2025 will probably be yet another year full of geopolitical uncertainty. In Ukraine a ceasefire or a broader peace treaty is a possibility. Still, an entirely just outcome such as the return of all occupied territories including Crimea, is not in the cards. And a truce doesn’t mean the war is over”, Michelle explains. “In addition, China’s military may become more assertive, with a potential escalation in Taiwan in the years to come. We also have to keep an eye on Iran and US foreign policy. At the same time, instability and unrest is growing in African regions such as the Sahel. These threats have in no way diminished and looking the other way may be a geopolitical and strategic mistake.”

Moreover, as Trump comes into office, geopolitical uncertainty looks to be increasing. “For some time now, the United States have been steering a course that sees them play a less active role in European security and focus more on China. This trend started under Obama but under Trump these changes may take more unexpected forms. How will he react if war breaks out in Europe? He could, for instance, withdraw from Europe faster or weaken NATO through a lack of involvement on a diplomatic level. It’s an unmistakable wake-up call for Europe: we cannot continue to outsource our safety to an ally on the other side of the Atlantic. The question is whether this umpteenth wake-up call will translate into actual policy.”