Should we be preparing for war?

War no longer feels as distant for many Europeans. Geopolitical tensions and a renewed arms race have pushed the issue high up the agenda. But does that mean we really need to prepare for war? We put the question to Michelle Haas, a doctoral researcher at Ghent University and defence specialist and author of the book Komt er oorlog? en 33 andere vragen over defensie (Will There Be a War? And 33 Other Questions About Defence).

Should we be preparing for war?

“That is without doubt the question I get asked most often today. The short answer is that the risk of a conflict directly affecting Belgium is higher than it has been in recent decades. But that needs to be put into perspective. We are not going to see Russian tanks rolling through Ghent. But we may face other forms of conflict. Think of cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or disruptions to energy supplies and logistics. Such threats are only likely to increase.”

Many people worry about a third world war. Is that fear justified?

“That fear is very real, especially among young people. The world has undoubtedly become more uncertain, but a conventional war on our territory remains highly unlikely. What people need is clarity: an understanding of what is happening, what they can do, and where to turn for reliable information. When people better understand the situation, fear tends to ease.”

How important is disinformation in all of this?

“Enormously important. We often underestimate how much information shapes our perception of reality. Disinformation is designed to create doubt and erode trust, making societies more vulnerable. That is why it is crucial for people to remain critical of what they read and share.”

Geopolitical tensions are causing a great deal of concern.

"That concern is understandable. We are witnessing a shift in the global balance of power. In political science, this is referred to as the Thucydides Trap: when an established power, such as the United States, is challenged by a rising power like China, the risk of miscalculation increases. Add an aggressive Russia to the picture and you get a highly unpredictable situation. War is not inevitable, but we do need to be realistic: conflicts can arise through escalation or strategic misjudgement. That uncertainty fuels fear.”

Is diplomacy still a credible alternative solution?

“Diplomacy remains absolutely essential, but it is not sufficient in every situation. Some actors are simply not willing to negotiate. In such cases, other instruments are needed as well. It is not a choice between diplomacy and defence: the two reinforce eachother. Those in a stronger position are often better able to negotiate.”

Should compulsory military service be reintroduced?

“I do not think that is necessary. Conscription was abolished after the Cold War, when armies became smaller and more professional. Today, we are once again in a different context, but that does not mean we should simply return to a compulsory system. The army also lacks the capacity for that. Initiatives such as voluntary military service or a larger reserve force make more sense. As a reservist, you can take on a wide range of roles: from a cook on a ship to a psychologist, physiotherapist, analyst or spokesperson. In that way, you contribute your own expertise to Defence in your own way.”

For those who do not want to, or cannot, become reservists: what can citizens do?

“We need to stand in solidarity with one another. For me, it starts with building self-reliance and resilience by regularly pushing your own limits. That may sound like ‘everyone for themselves’, but the more self-reliant people are, the more the government can focus on vulnerable groups. Being well prepared takes pressure off the system when it is under severe strain. That is the essence of societal resilience.”