What Pablo Escobar still teaches us about criminal networks

A major drug kingpin is arrested. Police pose beside stacks of seized cash and contraband. The message is clear: organised crime has suffered another major blow. It is a familiar narrative; one made famous by the rise and fall of Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar. But what if taking down a high-profile kingpin barely weakens the network behind them? According to Ghent University criminology researcher Dayle Harvey, we still focus too much on visible figureheads. “The most crucial connection isn't always found at the top.”

Films and television series often portray criminal organisations in the same way: a layered hierarchy with foot soldiers at the bottom and a powerful boss at the top. Think of the Netflix series about Pablo Escobar, where the entire story revolves around taking down the infamous drug lord to dismantle his organisation. In reality criminal networks tend to function very differently. “Criminal networks rarely resemble the kind of hierarchy you'd find in a company,” Harvey explains. “They're much closer to a spider's web. There are countless connections, and people can often step into one another's roles. That's what makes these networks remarkably resilient.”

Originally trained as a political scientist, Harvey Dayle is now conducting criminological research into forensic intelligence at Ghent University. Her work forms part of the Be-ForIntel project, which explores the added value forensic intelligence could bring to Belgium's criminal justice system. Researchers are investigating how different forms of data can be combined to better understand criminal networks and identify more effective intervention strategies.

Beyond DNA: every trace tells a story

What exactly is forensic intelligence? “Forensic intelligence starts from a much broader understanding of evidence than traditional forensic science,” says Harvey. “It's not just about DNA or fingerprints. Financial transactions, telephone records and other digital information can also reveal relationships. Every trace forms part of a much bigger picture.”

By combining these different layers of information, investigators can uncover entirely new perspectives on a network. “Based on traditional police data, someone may appear highly important simply because they show up frequently in investigations. But additional data can reveal that this person is mainly carrying out instructions for someone else who remains largely invisible. Forensic intelligence can bring those hidden relationships to light.”

That is because such roles depend not only on power, but also on trust and social relationships. “These are people with strong social and interpersonal skills, whom others trust. You can't simply replace them overnight. That often makes them strategically more important than the boss.”

What happens when a network is disrupted

So how do you effectively tackle a criminal network? “One of the most striking findings is that relationships matter as much as people, if not more. Communication is crucial. Disrupting connections between individuals can sometimes have a greater impact than removing a single person.”

In her research, Harvey therefore studies the speed and efficiency of communication as indicators of how well a network functions. “I look at the average number of steps information needs to travel from one person to another within a network. That's something we can quantify. In the networks I study, individuals are typically separated by about three communication steps. After targeted police interventions, that number can increase and sometimes even double.”

Not Escobar, but his connections

Given what we know today, how might a case such as Pablo Escobar's have been approached differently? “With the data and analytical techniques available today, the focus would be much less on the leader and much more on the network itself,” Harvey says. “The central question would no longer be who sits at the top, but how everything is connected.”

Rather than viewing Escobar as the single point of failure, investigators would focus on the structures surrounding him: who maintains communication, which individuals connect different parts of the network, and where the critical links are that hold everything together. “You would identify the real vulnerabilities much more quickly.”

Balancing intelligence and privacy

At the same time, Harvey recognises that these approaches raise legitimate concerns among the public. Forensic intelligence depends on connecting multiple sources of data. “People worry about their privacy,” she says. “And that's entirely understandable. That's why clear rules, transparency and proper oversight are essential.” 

She therefore advocates a gradual approach that allows police, judicial authorities and citizens alike to build trust in how data are used. “This isn't only about what is technically possible. It's also about what society is willing to accept. Systems like these must be introduced carefully, with close attention to privacy and the responsible interpretation of data.” Because, ultimately, a trace on its own reveals very little. “The aim isn't to solve organised crime,” Harvey concludes. “It's to understand it better, so that we can intervene more intelligently.”